Bolsonaro and the Right-Led rise: Make Brazil Great Again?

Jair Bolsonaro was born in the state of São Paulo in 1955. Before becoming involved in the politics of his country, he was a military man, reaching the rank of captain. In 1988, he was elected councilman of Rio de Janeiro. Two years later, in 1990, he won a seat as a deputy and was re-elected for five more terms, and in 2014 he became the most voted deputy in that year's election. Later, in 2018, he joined the Social Liberal Party (right) from which he launched his presidential candidacy (Quien.Net, 2018).

With a particular rhetoric, he has managed to attract the masses in the last few months towards the October elections. Because of his strong mindset of fighting against criminality and the insecurity that afflicts Brazil, specially the most vulnerable cities. Precisely, in September of this year, Bolsonaro was attacked with a knife in the middle of a rally in the electoral campaign. After recovering and continuing in campaigning, his popularity increased and there were mobilizations demonstrating empathy and condemnation of violence (which is a sensitive issue for citizens). However, after the banning of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's candidacy, which had 40% favouritism, Bolsonaro climbed as leader in the intention of votes, after being leader in the electoral rejection rates with 44% (El Observador, 2018).

A particular case occurs in Treze de Maio, a municipality in the state of Santa Catarina in the Southern Region of Brazil, in which last October 7th, in the first round of the presidential elections, Jair Bolsonaro obtained an overwhelming support of 83.9% (Lissardy, 2018). It is no coincidence that the name of this municipality "May 13" commemorates the date on which Brazil abolished slavery in 1888, the last country to do so in the Americas (Lissardy, 2018). This upward trend of the Bolsonaro surname is also due to the discontent of the population. "The PT totally ruined our country," says Vanessa Rodrigues, a city worker. Let's remember that the PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores) or Worker's Party, in coalition with other parties, led Brazil from 2003 to 2016, with Lula de Silva as its most representative leader. "This Man comes as a saviour," says Paulo Elias, a 46-year-old coach (Lissardy, 2018). This feeling of disappointment about the traditional parties and their constant corruption scandals that have rocked the country's left has generated a process of mitosis toward the support of the right, represented by "The Legend," as Bolsonaro is also called.  

Brian Winter, the editor in chief of Americas Quarterly, affirms that "Bolsonaro is openly copying aspects of the Trump strategy" and believed it could prove a winning formula. "Donald Trump got elected saying that crime in the inner-cities was out of control, that the economy was a disaster and that the entire political class was corrupt ... All three of those things are indisputably true in Brazil. So, if Trump could get elected, imagine what is possible in a country like Brazil right now." (Phillips, 2018). It should be noted that Bolsonaro declared himself an admirer of Trump and added, "I am an admirer of President Trump. He wants a big United States; I want a big Brazil" (El Comercio, 2018). And the effects are already making themselves noticeably visible.

This rhetoric, which includes criticism towards the traditional parties and the corruption scandals that surround them, his support for various national and foreign dictatorships, the defence of the possession of weapons by civilians, the abolition of laws regulating those policemen who murder criminals instead of prosecuting them, the lowering of the age of imputability from 18 to 16 years and the application of the death penalty, have immeasurably increased his popularity. So much so, that last October 7th, Bolsonaro surpassed Fernando Haddad, the candidate of the Workers Party, winning the first run with 46% of the votes (BBC, 2018) and it does not stop there. Some memorable cracks from the contemporary history of "La Canarinha" (yellow, in Portuguese, as the national soccer team is known) such as Ronaldinho, Kaká, Rivaldo and Cafú, have demonstrated their support for Bolsonaro.

With an Italian and German background, he has generated multiple reactions at the national and international level, due to the racist and misogynistic messages that have permeated his presidential campaign. Although he is rejected by about 49% of women voters, 17% support him, according to a survey by Datafolha, on September 10th. "I wouldn't rape you because you don't deserve it," referring to Maria do Rosario, a member of the PT. "I would not employ a woman for the same salary as a man because they get pregnant. "I have five children. I had four men and in the fifth, I became weaker and a girl came" and the list goes on.
For this reason, on September 29th, millions of women joined and marched with the hashtag #EleNao (Not him) in one of the largest women-led demonstrations in Brazilian history, to which one of his sons replied that "right-wing women are prettier than those on the left. Right-wing women do not protest with bare breasts or defecate to protest, that is, right-wing women are more hygienic than those on the left" (Europa Press, 2018). However, those who support him justify concentrating on other policies (Lissardy, 2018). In fact, Datafolha's latest survey conducted on Tuesday, October 2nd, shows that women's voting intention for Bolsonaro increased to 27% (Balthazar, 2018) and men's to 37% (Europa Press, 2018).  

In addition, a phrase that has become familiar was "Ni para procrear sirven (Not even useful to procreate)" that stimulated a wave of media protests against the candidate. This phrase referred to the Quilombola communities, remnants of the time of slavery of African blacks who were taken to the Portuguese village of Óbidos, with the aim of working in the cocoa plantations at the end of the nineteenth century (Borges, 2014).
On the other hand, he argues that "torturing, not killing" leftist activists was the mistake of Brazil's military dictatorship, which lasted from 1964 to 1985. He also promises to stop funding human rights organizations because, according to him, "human rights are a harm to Brazil," he says (Lissardy, 2018).

With the latest, the second round of presidential elections will take place on Sunday, October 28th , and Bolsonaro continues to lead the polls with 57% of the vote.  Among his policies, in addition to those mentioned above, are Brazil's exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, the opening for deforestation of the Amazon, the abandonment of the United Nations and the privatization of the state company Petrobas in the medium term.
According to the Podcast of Semana's website, Ricardo Betancourt, director of International Relations at the Javeriana University, comments that "the solution of the military dictatorship was not resolved through reconciliation processes as in Chile. The dictatorship fell due to corruption and speeches have come out to remember a supposed glorious time of Brazil and therefore, this makes the sectors that support the military increase in popularity," he says. (Semana, 2018)

The truth is that Brazil continues to be one of the most unequal countries in South America, and with a young democracy, the tendency of the population not to support parties but their representatives has been visible. Among floods of comments are that Bolsonaro's rhetoric resembles Duterte, some describe him as Fascist and even recalls the fact that Hitler was democratically elected, and for that reason, he could be considered a threat to the future of Brazil's democracy.

One of the main challenges is to lead a country whose economy is weakened. Since 2015 with the recession that hit the country, the annual growth of around 1% is not enough for the 13 million unemployed, in addition to the large deficits. Without drastic reforms, debt can reach 100% of GDP in the next 2 years. Therefore, among the different conclusions, it is worth highlighting that this unsustainable problem of Brazil in the long term directly involves the economic policies to be taken from next October 28th. Bearing this in mind, neither of the two candidates has formulated clear economic plans to receive with less shock an almost inevitable fiscal crisis. In addition, Bolsonaro has promised to reduce the number of members of his cabinet, which means less likelihood of creating coalitions. So Latin America's largest economy is wrapped in an enigma (Bolle, 2018).
Finally, the trend spread in recent years towards an unpredictable right-wing and the return of the almost prophetic speeches of its admirals, raises questions that reformulate the construction of the current order, will Brazil be next?

References
Balthazar, R. (2018, October 3). El candidato Bolsonaro conquista apoyo de mujeres y crece en el noreste del país, según sondeo Datafolha. Retrieved from Folha de S.Paulo: https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/es/brasil/2018/10/el-candidato-bolsonaro-conquista-apoyo-de-mujeres-y-crece-en-el-noreste-del-pais-segun-sondeo-datafolha.shtml
BBC. (2018, October 22). Jair Bolsonaro: los famosos futbolistas como Ronaldinho que apoyan su candidatura a la presidencia de Brasil. Retrieved from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/deportes-45940842
Bolle, M. d. (2018, October 9). Ni Haddad ni Bolsonaro tienen lo necesario para evitar una crisis en Brasil. Retrieved from The New York Times : https://www.nytimes.com/es/2018/10/09/opinion-elecciones-brasil-bolsonaro/?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fnyt-es
Borges, B. (2014, March 29). Las comunidades quilombolas que resisten en Oriximiná. Retrieved from El País: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2014/03/28/actualidad/1396039867_792085.html
El Comercio. (2018, October 11). Jair Bolsonaro se declara "admirador" de Donald Trump. Retrieved from El Comercio: https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/actualidad/jair-bolsonaro-declara-admirador-donald-trump-noticia-566846
El Observador. (2018, September 8). Po qué el atentado da un empujón a Bolsonaro hacia la presidencia. Retrieved from El Observador: https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/por-que-el-atentado-da-un-empujon-a-bolsonaro-hacia-la-presidencia-de-brasil-201898152557
Europa Press. (2018). Un hijo de Bolsonaro dice que las mujeres de derechas en Brasil son más guapas e higiénicas. . Retrieved from Europa Press: https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-hijo-bolsonaro-dice-mujeres-derechas-brasil-son-mas-guapas-higienicas-20181001112148.html
Lissardy, G. (2018, October 24). Jair Bolsonaro: la devoción por el candidato ultraderechista en Treze de Maio, el pueblo de Brasil en el que más del 80% lo apoya. Retrieved from BBC News: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-45961435
Phillips, T. (2018, April 19). Trump of the tropics: the 'dangerous' candidate leading Brazil's presidential race. Retrieved from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/19/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-presidential-candidate-trump-parallels
Quien.Net. (2018). Biografía de Jair Bolsonaro . Retrieved from Quien.Net: https://www.quien.net/jair-bolsonaro.php
Semana. (2018). ¿Qué pasaría si gana Bolsonaro? Retrieved from Semana: https://www.semana.com/mundo/multimedia/que-pasaria-si-gana-bolsonaro/587420.

Photo by Sergio Souza on Unsplash